FRS 001U — Sec. 001 — (1 unit) — CRN 53284 — T 9:00-9:50 am — 25 Wellman
Statistics, Science and Public Policy

Instructor: Robert Shumway Department of Statistics, College of Letters and Science

Description: The ability to make informed decisions relating to public policy is, or should be, conditioned on our ability to resolve uncertainties associated with the possible consequences of such decisions. Probability and statistics gives us an excellent way of quantifying conclusions that may rest on scientific interpretations of data. Tanur et al (1972) is a very early reference with many examples from other areas.

Format: The first three weeks of this seminar will explore how uncertainties arise using data that I bring to class. Class discussion will introduce some simple statistical methodology for interpreting data and communicating results to the public. Statistical techniques will involve the use of simple probability, averages and other distributional summaries. The first three weeks of the seminar will be devoted to presenting several typical scientific topics with public policy implications as well as statistical summaries related to the scientific question. The second part of the seminar will cover new topics designed to answer specific questions with public policy implications. Talks will be presented relating to selected topics that have been researched by students working in teams. Will make intensive use of the World Wide Web and of efficient search engines. Goals of the course are to develop an appreciation for the informed use of (A) scientific data and (B) statistical methodology as complementary approaches to quantifying uncertainty for potential issues in public policy. Grading: I will ask student teams to present their own analyses in the last five weeks of the seminar, both in the form of oral reports and as short written reports. Grades will be based on oral and written presentations (80%) and on class participation (20%).

About the Instructor:
Professor Shumway is a member of the Department of Statistics. His research interests center on the evaluation and assessment of scientific data observed over time. He has over 35 years experience in consulting for government agencies and private companies on diverse topics, ranging from detecting and locating nuclear tests using seismic recordings to assessing health effects from time-indexed mortality and pollution data.